The History of Foresight: From Ancient Predictions to Modern Threatcasting

By Cyndi Coon, Applied Futurist

The art of gazing into the future has always been a tantalizing endeavor. From ancient oracles to social scientists, humanity's desire to anticipate what's next has shaped civilizations. This journey through time is an evolution of foresight methodologies, culminating in the practice of Threatcasting—a human-centric approach to envisioning and mitigating future threats.

The Dawn of Foresight: Early Attempts at Predicting the Future

Long before the term "foresight" entered our lexicon, societies sought ways to prepare for the unknown. Ancient civilizations relied on divination and prophecy, methods that, while lacking empirical rigor, underscored an intrinsic desire to foresee and influence destiny for the betterment of humankind. They often intertwined their spiritual, political, and societal structures with the pursuit of foreseeing future events. While modern methodologies are rooted in data and empirical analysis, early foresight practices relied on intuition, ritual, and symbolic interpretation.

Divination, the attempt to gain insight into future events through supernatural or mystical means, was a cornerstone of ancient foresight. While today we view these methods as unscientific, they served as the earliest structured attempts at forecasting the unknown.

●      Mesopotamian Omens & Haruspicy

One of the earliest recorded methods of foresight comes from Mesopotamia (c. 2000 BCE), where priests known as baru would analyze celestial events, weather patterns, and even the entrails of sacrificed animals to interpret omens. The Babylonians meticulously recorded these findings on clay tablets, forming one of the earliest data-driven approaches to prediction—albeit rooted in superstition.

●      Egyptian Dream Interpretation & Prophetic Visions

The ancient Egyptians believed that dreams were messages from the gods, offering warnings or guidance for rulers. Temples often housed dream interpreters who advised pharaohs on state decisions based on their visions. The Book of Dreams (c. 1300 BCE) is one of the oldest known manuals for dream-based foresight, categorizing symbols and their potential meanings.

●      Chinese Oracle Bones & the I Ching

In ancient China (c. 1200 BCE), diviners inscribed questions onto oracle bones, which were then heated until they cracked. The patterns of these cracks were interpreted as divine messages, guiding everything from agricultural planning to military campaigns. The I Ching, a text based on binary systems of change, evolved from these practices and remains an influential tool for strategic thinking even today.

Prophecy, unlike divination, often involved individuals believed to have a direct connection to the divine or an extraordinary ability to foresee future events.

●      The Oracle of Delphi

The Greeks institutionalized prophecy through the Oracle of Delphi, where the Pythia—priestesses of Apollo—would deliver cryptic pronouncements. These oracles often shaped political and military decisions; for example, King Croesus of Lydia (6th century BCE) famously misinterpreted an oracle's warning, leading to his downfall in battle.

●      Biblical & Religious Prophets

Religious texts, such as the Hebrew Bible, the Quran, and the Vedas, contain numerous accounts of prophets who foresaw future events and warned their societies of impending disasters or moral consequences. These prophecies were not merely mystical—they often reflected deep societal observations, making them early attempts at sociopolitical foresight.

●      Indigenous Vision Quests & Totemic Guidance

Many Indigenous cultures engaged in foresight through vision quests and totemic interpretations. In Native American traditions, individuals seeking guidance would embark on solitary journeys, fasting and meditating until they received spiritual insights. These visions were then integrated into tribal decision-making processes.

Despite their mystical foundations, these early practices laid the groundwork for modern foresight methodologies. They shared key characteristics with contemporary forecasting techniques, such as pattern recognition. Even in superstition, ancient forecasters sought patterns in celestial movements, animal behavior, and human affairs—an approach mirrored in modern data analytics. Oracles and seers often presented rulers with multiple possible futures, allowing them to prepare for different outcomes—much like today’s scenario-based planning. Whether through omens or divine messages, ancient foresight was designed to guide societies—similar to modern policy foresight.

The Enlightenment and the Birth of Scientific Forecasting

The European Enlightenment (17th–18th centuries) was a revolution of the mind. It was an era when reason, logic, and empirical observation began to challenge the mystical and superstitious approaches that had long guided human decision-making. This intellectual awakening laid the foundation for modern forecasting, transforming speculation into structured, evidence-based prediction.

Before the Enlightenment, predicting the future was often a mix of divine interpretation and guesswork. However, as scientific reasoning took hold, scholars sought ways to quantify uncertainty and develop systematic approaches to risk assessment. From Mysticism to Mathematics: The Rise of Probability Theory began with:

●      Blaise Pascal & Pierre de Fermat: The Birth of Probability (1654)

Two French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, unknowingly shaped the future of strategic forecasting when they corresponded about a gambling problem. Their insights led to probability theory, a mathematical framework for assessing likelihoods—an essential tool for everything from financial risk management to weather forecasting.

●      Jacob Bernoulli & the Law of Large Numbers (1713)

Building on Pascal’s work, Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli introduced the Law of Large Numbers, demonstrating that with enough data, long-term patterns emerge despite short-term randomness. This principle underpins modern predictive analytics, where large datasets reveal trends even in seemingly chaotic systems.

●      Thomas Bayes & Conditional Probability (1763)

Bayes' Theorem, published posthumously, introduced a method for updating probabilities as new evidence emerges—laying the groundwork for modern machine learning, artificial intelligence, and predictive modeling. In essence, Bayes proved that forecasting wasn’t about certainty but about refining probabilities over time.

The Scientific Method: Structured Foresight Takes Shape

Alongside probability theory, the Enlightenment introduced the scientific method—a rigorous, repeatable process of observation, hypothesis, experimentation, and conclusion. This method revolutionized how societies approached the future, allowing thinkers to anticipate outcomes based on empirical evidence rather than divine revelation.

●      Francis Bacon & Empirical Reasoning (1620s)

Considered one of the fathers of the scientific method, Francis Bacon argued in Novum Organum that knowledge should be derived from observation and experiment rather than tradition or superstition. His approach laid the groundwork for data-driven decision-making.

●      Isaac Newton & Predictive Laws (1687)

Newton’s Principia Mathematica introduced laws of motion and gravity, proving that the universe operated according to predictable principles. His work reinforced the belief that future events—whether celestial movements or economic trends—could be systematically understood and anticipated.

Utopian & Dystopian Visions: Literature as a Foresight Tool

As the Enlightenment’s rationalism spread, so did its impact on literature. Writers began exploring future societies, often reflecting contemporary anxieties or aspirations. These early speculative fiction works served as foresight exercises, imagining both the possibilities and perils of human progress.

❖     Thomas More’s Utopia (1516) & Enlightenment Ideals

Though written before the Enlightenment, Utopia envisioned an ideal society based on reason, equity, and scientific advancement—concepts that would later influence Enlightenment thinkers like Voltaire and Rousseau.

❖     Jonathan Swift’s Gulliver’s Travels (1726): Satirical Futurism

Swift used satire to critique Enlightenment rationality, depicting absurd societies that exaggerated the era’s intellectual trends. His Laputa, a floating island ruled by scientists obsessed with impractical theories, foreshadowed concerns about over-reliance on technology—an issue that remains central to modern foresight discussions.

❖     Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein (1818): The First Techno-Dystopia

Written after the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution, Frankenstein explored the unintended consequences of unchecked scientific ambition. Shelley’s work remains a cornerstone of foresight literature, highlighting ethical dilemmas in technological progress.

Forecasting as a Tool for Decision-Making

By the end of the Enlightenment, forecasting was no longer the domain of mystics and prophets. With mathematical models, empirical research, and structured scenario-building, humans could analyze trends and anticipate future challenges with unprecedented precision. These advances paved the way for:

• Economic Forecasting (e.g., Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, 1776, which analyzed market trends and laid the groundwork for predictive economics).

• Demographic Projections (e.g., Thomas Malthus’ theories on population growth and resource scarcity).

• Technological Foresight (early discussions on mechanization and its long-term societal impact).

The 20th Century: Institutionalizing Foresight

The tumultuous events of the early 20th century, including two World Wars and rapid technological advancements, highlighted the need for structured foresight. Governments and organizations began to formalize forecasting techniques. The two World Wars reshaped how nations thought about the future. The unpredictability of conflict, rapid technological innovations, and the sheer scale of destruction underscored the need for systematic foresight.

• WWI and the Rise of Intelligence Forecasting

  The First World War (1914–1918) introduced aerial reconnaissance, radio intercepts, and economic war gaming as means of anticipating enemy actions. Intelligence agencies began applying early forms of predictive analysis, correlating data on troop movements, industrial production, and logistics to forecast military outcomes.

• WWII: Operations Research and Game Theory

  By World War II, foresight had become more sophisticated. Military planners used operations research, a data-driven approach to optimizing logistics and battlefield strategies. Figures like John von Neumann developed game theory, a mathematical framework for strategic decision-making, influencing Cold War nuclear deterrence and corporate strategy alike.

• The Manhattan Project & Technological Forecasting

  The development of the atomic bomb demonstrated the necessity of long-term technological foresight. Scientists and policymakers grappled with the consequences of nuclear power, prompting early discussions on the ethical and geopolitical impacts of emerging technologies. This concern remains central to foresight methodologies today.

The post-WWII era saw foresight methodologies shift from reactive wartime strategies to proactive institutional planning. With the looming specter of nuclear annihilation and geopolitical instability, the United States and its allies sought structured ways to anticipate global threats.

Herman Kahn & RAND Corporation: Birth of Scenario Planning

In the 1950s, Herman Kahn, a strategist at the RAND Corporation, pioneered scenario planning, a method that crafted multiple detailed narratives about potential futures.

Originally developed for military applications—such as modeling nuclear war scenarios—this approach allowed policymakers to explore a range of possible outcomes rather than relying on a single prediction.

• Kahn’s work, though controversial (he famously devised strategies for "winnable" nuclear wars), laid the foundation for scenario planning in business, economics, and public policy.

• Corporations like Royal Dutch Shell later adopted scenario planning to prepare for oil price shocks, proving its effectiveness beyond military strategy.

The Delphi Method: Harnessing Collective Intelligence

Around the same time, the Delphi Method emerged as a structured approach to expert consensus forecasting. Developed by the RAND Corporation, Delphi relied on iterative rounds of questionnaires to refine expert opinions on future trends.

• This method minimized bias by preventing dominant individuals from steering discussions, making it especially valuable in complex decision-making environments.

• Governments and businesses began using Delphi to forecast economic trends, technological developments, and even social change.

By the mid-20th century, foresight techniques were no longer confined to military and government circles. The business world recognized that structured forecasting could provide a competitive advantage.

Futurism in Business: The Shell Oil Company

Royal Dutch Shell, influenced by RAND’s scenario planning, became one of the first corporations to institutionalize foresight. In the 1970s, Shell analysts successfully anticipated the 1973 oil crisis, allowing the company to adapt more quickly than its competitors.

The Rise of Technology Forecasting

With the dawn of computing and space exploration, structured foresight became essential in anticipating technological revolutions.

• Moore’s Law (1965): Gordon Moore’s prediction that computer processing power would double every two years became one of the most reliable long-term forecasts in history.

• NASA’s Long-Term Planning (1960s–1970s): Space agencies began using structured forecasting to predict advancements in propulsion, robotics, and extraterrestrial colonization.

  
  

The 20th century wasn’t just a turning point for institutional foresight—it was also a golden age for speculative fiction that questioned, deconstructed, and reimagined the future. While male-dominated science fiction often centered on technological determinism and Cold War anxieties, visionary women and AfroFuturist authors reshaped the narrative, placing human experience, social justice, and marginalized voices at the heart of foresight storytelling.

❖    Octavia Butler’s Parable of the Sower (1993): The Foresight of Social Collapse

Long before Threatcasting formalized the process of envisioning future risks, Octavia Butler was doing the work through speculative fiction. Set in a climate-ravaged, economically collapsed America of the 2020s, Parable of the Sower eerily foreshadowed the growing wealth gap, privatization of security, water shortages, and the rise of demagogic leaders. The protagonist, Lauren Olamina, creates a philosophy called Earthseed, built on the principle that “God is Change”—essentially a resilience-based foresight model for surviving a fractured world. How it connects to foresight:

●       Scenario planning: Butler examines a near-future world through the lens of multiple societal collapses—climate, economy, and governance.

●       Human-centric foresight: Instead of focusing on technology, Butler explores how individuals and communities adapt to shifting landscapes.

●       Backcasting: Lauren doesn’t just react to the dystopia around her—she builds Earthseed as a roadmap for a better future, just as Threatcasting identifies actionable steps to prevent worst-case scenarios.

❖     Angela Carter’s The Passion of New Eve (1977): Gender, Identity, and the Future of the Human Body

A bold work of speculative fiction, Angela Carter’s The Passion of New Eve imagines a surreal, post-apocalyptic America where gender, power, and identity are violently reshaped. The novel follows a British man, Evelyn, who travels to the U.S. and is forcibly transformed into a woman—Eve—by a secret matriarchal society. From the ruins of Los Angeles to the vast deserts controlled by cult-like factions, Carter explores what it means to be human in a time of radical societal and biological change. How it connects to foresight:

●       Transhumanism & body autonomy: Long before the modern debates on bioengineering, gender-affirming technologies, and posthumanism, Carter imagined a world where identity itself was mutable.

●       Societal collapse & reformation: Like modern Threatcasting exercises, the book doesn’t predict destruction—it examines how new systems of power and resistance emerge.

❖     Nnedi Okorafor’s Who Fears Death (2010): AfroFuturism Meets Foresight

Although published in the 21st century, Nnedi Okorafor’s Who Fears Death belongs in the conversation for its powerful use of Afrofuturism as a foresight tool. Set in a post-apocalyptic Africa, the novel follows Onyesonwu, a girl born of violence, who discovers she has supernatural abilities. As she navigates a war-torn, patriarchal society, she confronts systemic oppression, genocide, and the power of storytelling as resistance—all while struggling with the burden of knowing her own future. How it connects to foresight:

●       AfroFuturism as a foresight methodology: Okorafor doesn’t predict catastrophe—she reclaims the future from a non-Western, non-Eurocentric perspective.

●       Human-centered speculative futures: Instead of focusing on technology or military strategy, Who Fears Death examines how culture, myths, and belief systems shape long-term societal change—a crucial element in real-world foresight.

●       Threat recognition & intervention: Onyesonwu's journey mirrors a Threatcasting framework: recognizing a coming disaster, identifying warning signs (flags in Threatcasting terminology), and working to prevent the worst outcomes.

Throughout the 20th century, women and Afrofuturist writers pioneered some of the most forward-thinking explorations of the future. Unlike traditional science fiction, which often focused on technological determinism, these authors centered the human, societal, and cultural dimensions of foresight—which is exactly what methodologies like Threatcasting aim to do.

As we face increasing climate change, AI-driven futures, and the resurgence of authoritarianism, these speculative works provide narrative foresight—a way to test possible futures, expose systemic risks, and imagine alternative worlds worth fighting for.

The Rise of Participatory Foresight

By the late 20th century, foresight had evolved from a niche intellectual pursuit into a powerful tool for governments, corporations, and institutions worldwide. Techniques like scenario planning and Delphi forecasting paved the way for more human-centered, interdisciplinary approaches—culminating in modern methodologies like Threatcasting.

Unlike traditional forecasting, which often focused on linear trends and statistical probabilities, Threatcasting incorporates human behavior, emerging threats, and backcasting techniques to map out futures in which potential dangers could manifest.

The Rise of Participatory Foresight was a shift in methodologies, and it was a revolution in who gets to imagine the future. As the 20th century progressed, a new wave of women futurists and speculative thinkers emerged, demanding a more inclusive, participatory approach. They didn’t predict the future; they actively involved diverse communities in shaping it. Here are a few whose work bridged the gap between foresight, fiction, and participatory futures, influencing how we collaboratively envision and prepare for what’s next.

❖     Madeline Ashby: Science Fiction as a Participatory Foresight Tool

Her fiction, including the Machine Dynasty series, explores themes of AI ethics, transhumanism, and the unintended consequences of innovation—subjects she has also tackled in real-world foresight projects for organizations like the Institute for the Future and Policy Horizons Canada.

Why her work matters to participatory foresight:

●       Uses science fiction prototyping to make futures tangible.

●       Engages non-experts in foresight by making it story-driven and immersive.

●       Blends ethical inquiry with technological forecasting, ensuring that human impact remains central.

❖     Dr. Claire Nelson, Pioneer in Participatory Foresight and Sustainability Engineering

Recognizing the power of narrative, Dr. Nelson uniquely combines storytelling with foresight methodologies. Her one-woman show, "Moon Runnings: The Life & Times of the First Jamaican on the Moon," exemplifies this blend, using performance art to explore future scenarios and engage audiences in conversations about space exploration and sustainability.  Dr. Nelson's contributions have garnered international acclaim. She was named among Forbes' Top 50 Female Futurists and serves as the first Black female member of the Board of the World Futures Studies Federation. Her leadership extends to her role as Editor-At-Large for the federation's flagship publication, "Human Futures Magazine," where she continues to advocate for diverse perspectives in foresight discussions. ​ With a robust foundation in industrial engineering, Dr. Nelson combines technical expertise with a passion for social equity. She is also the architect behind the successful campaign to designate June as National Caribbean American Heritage Month in the United States, highlighting her dedication to cultural recognition and community empowerment.  Through her visionary leadership, Dr. Claire Nelson exemplifies the essence of participatory foresight. By integrating sustainability engineering with inclusive strategic planning, she ensures that the future we build is reflective of and beneficial to the diverse tapestry of global society.​

Why her work matters to participatory foresight:

●       Foresight for the Marginalized: Dr. Nelson ensures that traditionally underrepresented communities—particularly those in the Global South and the Caribbean—have a voice in shaping the future, making foresight more equitable and inclusive.

●       Storytelling as a Foresight Tool: By blending performance, culture, and strategic foresight, she makes future scenarios more accessible and emotionally engaging, proving that storytelling is a powerful method for participatory futures.

●       Sustainability and Development Integration: As an engineer and futurist, she connects foresight with real-world policy and sustainable development, ensuring that future visions are not just aspirational but actionable and grounded in socio-economic realities.

❖     Pilar Maria Ossorio: Ethical Foresight in Biotechnology

Pilar Maria Ossorio’s work focuses on participatory ethics in science and technology, ensuring that communities—not just experts—have a say in how emerging technologies are developed and implemented. As a faculty member at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and an advisor on numerous bioethics and AI policy boards, she has been instrumental in advocating for inclusive, multidisciplinary foresight practices. Ossorio’s work highlights a crucial shift in foresight methodology: it’s not enough to predict technological advancements—we need to ensure that the people most affected by those changes have a voice in shaping them.

Why she matters to participatory foresight:

●       Bridges foresight and bioethics, ensuring that marginalized voices influence the future of science and tech.

●       Develops participatory policy models that engage public stakeholders in shaping AI and genetic research.

●       Proves that foresight isn’t just about what’s possible—it’s about what’s just.

Enter Threatcasting: A Human-Centric Evolution

Building upon these foundational methodologies, Threatcasting is a distinctive approach to envisioning, disrupting, mitigating, and recovering from future threats. Coined by futurist Brian David Johnson, Threatcasting combines elements of traditional forecasting with a deep focus on Threatcasting thrives on interdisciplinary collaboration, bringing together experts from diverse fields—including technology, sociology, economics, historical, geopolitics and more—to create a more holistic understanding of potential futures. By integrating these varied perspectives, Threatcasting moves beyond isolated predictions and builds a richer, more dynamic view of emerging threats.

A key component of the methodology is science fiction prototyping, in which participants craft narratives set to a future horizon - often ten years. These speculative yet plausible scenarios help contextualize threats, making them tangible and easier to comprehend. Instead of dealing in abstract predictions, Threatcasting uses storytelling to place threats in a real-world framework, helping decision-makers visualize the impact and urgency of potential risks.

Backcasting is employed to bridge the gap between imagined futures and the present-day need for action. This technique works in reverse, identifying the steps needed to reach or avoid a particular future scenario. By methodically tracing back from an envisioned outcome, backcasting ensures that the strategies developed are not only forward-thinking but also practical and grounded in current realities.

Finally, the identification of "flags" and "gates" plays a crucial role in the Threatcasting process. Flags are specific indicators—events, trends, technological advancements, or behavioral shifts—that signal the potential emergence of a threat. These can be early warning signs such as increased cyberattacks targeting infrastructure, the rapid adoption of a disruptive technology, or shifts in geopolitical alliances that hint at instability. Recognizing these flags early allows for proactive intervention, ensuring that decision-makers have time to course-correct before a risk escalates into a crisis.

Complementing flags, gates act as decision points or critical junctures where action—or inaction—determines the trajectory of a potential threat. Gates represent moments when organizations, governments, or individuals must make strategic choices based on the flagged indicators. These might include legislative opportunities to regulate an emerging technology before it becomes a security risk, corporate policies that determine how AI is deployed ethically, or military and diplomatic choices that influence whether tensions escalate into conflict.

Together, flags and gates create a structured pathway to anticipate and recognize threats and intervene at key moments before a worst-case scenario unfolds. Through this process, Threatcasting transforms what were previously individual foresight tools into actionable models, equipping organizations with the decision-making actions needed to navigate an uncertain future with agility and intent.

Applications and Impact

Threatcasting has been adopted by a diverse range of organizations, spanning military, government, academia, and the private sector, to anticipate and prepare for emerging challenges. Institutions such as the U.S. Army Cyber Institute, NATO, Arizona Army National Guard, and the Department of Homeland Security leverage Threatcasting methodologies to explore future security risks, ensuring proactive strategies are in place to address potential vulnerabilities. Sandia National Laboratories, the Department of Defense, and the Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment Program (IBAS) apply Threatcasting to technological and industrial resilience planning. The CDC and NOAA integrate it into public health and environmental forecasting, while MITRE and the United Nations use it to address global security and policy challenges. In the academic sphere, Arizona State University, Texas A&M, Rutgers University, the University of Arizona, West Point as well as international universities employ Threatcasting to train future leaders in risk assessment and strategic foresight. Private sector leaders such as Cisco, Intel, Mastercard, and ISACA utilize the methodology to identify industry-specific disruptions and prepare for technological shifts.

By working across these diverse sectors, Threatcasting continues to evolve as a critical tool for navigating uncertainty, enabling organizations to envision, prepare for, and shape the future.

Threatcasting Today - Co Founder Cyndi Coon’s Perspective

If Threatcasting is the ultimate tool for anticipating the dark corners of the future, then it was my job to become the architect who turned it into an experiential, human-centric, and interactively engaging methodology. While traditional foresight often leans into data-heavy analysis, upon meeting BDJ, I immediately expressed something critical: People don’t just absorb information—they experience it. So I worked with BDJ to not exactly refine Threatcasting because the method is the method and the process is the process—I just gamified it.

My contribution was to transform Threatcasting into an interactive, cinematic, and emotionally immersive experience. An empathy hack!

Most strategic foresight exercises feel like something out of a corporate war room — PowerPoint-heavy, theoretical, and disconnected from real human impact. I blew that model out. I turned Threatcasting into an experiential tabletop game, where teams don’t just discuss the future—they play through it. By adding tactile elements, narrative immersion, and role-based engagement, I made foresight something people don’t just think about—they feel it.

Instead of passively theorizing about potential futures, I wanted participants to become part of the process. That’s why I designed an essential part of the Threatcasting method using game pieces, unique team names, badges, and roles that symbolize each player’s contribution to shaping the future. Gamification ensures that Threatcasting isn’t just a cold, intellectual exercise—it’s embodied and personal.

But I didn’t stop at making it interactive. I wanted Threatcasting models to read like movie scripts—not dull data collection exercises, but where cinematic narratives could be built where participants could truly see, feel, and experience the future.

Instead of bullet points, the models unfold like thrillers—complete with protagonists, antagonists, and tension points. By weaving storytelling techniques into the process, I ensure participants look at threats and emotionally connect with them. That connection makes the insights more impactful and actionable.

Traditional foresight methodologies rely on static models—I made Threatcasting interactive. The tabletop format forces participants to engage in real-time decision-making, role-play scenarios, and collaborative problem-solving, ensuring that ideas aren’t just theoretical—they’re stress-tested in a dynamic environment. When people leave a Threatcasting session, they walk away with ‘lived experience’ of the future.

The Human-Centric Applied Approach

My role was to bring joy, urgency, empathy and humanity into a methodology that could have easily remained an analytical spreadsheet process. I wanted to break future tools out of their ivory tower. Threatcasting isn’t just for military strategists or corporate executives—it’s for everyone. By making it hands-on and interactive, I wanted to ensure that diverse voices could engage in meaningful future-building. Because the future is built by all. My focus on play and immersion makes even the most complex future accessible and inclusive. Traditional foresight methodologies often more focused on metrics, probabilities, and trend analysis, but Threatcasting puts people at the center. The stories, game pieces, and group dynamics humanize threats, reminding participants that these aren’t abstract trends but real futures that will impact real lives. Threatcasting engages emotions because numbers alone don’t drive action—feelings do. When participants emotionally invest in building their models, they’re far more likely to take meaningful action—and that’s the whole point of effective foresight. Threatcasting is about experiencing the future before it happens. By making it tactile, interactive, and deeply personal, this method allows us to prepare in ways we never could before.

The Future of Foresight

From ancient prophecies to cutting-edge foresight, humanity has always sought to outmaneuver the unknown. Threatcasting isn’t just another forecasting tool—it’s a battle plan for the future, a way to see what’s coming and take action before it arrives. As threats accelerate and seismic change shifts, those who master this methodology won’t just survive—they’ll shape the world to come.

For a deeper dive into Threatcasting, consider exploring the book "Threatcasting" by Brian David Johnson and Cyndi Coon, available through Springer Nature.

If you'd like to connect with Cyndi Coon, visit her LinkedIn profile.