Human-Centric Forecasting: Why It Matters

Cyndi Coon, futurist, founder of the Applied Futures Lab

Both the experiential components and imagination are so crucial in Threatcasting...

When Brian David Johnson, my dear friend and colleague, introduced Threatcasting in 2007, he brought me in to help develop an experiential component. From the beginning, I knew that engagement and immersion were indispensable for envisioning potential futures. The process isn’t just about analysis—it’s about participation. Practitioners, students, and subject matter experts don’t just observe the future; they step inside it, modeling potential threats through lived human experiences.

With the launch of Threatcasting.ai in 2025, built through collaboration with Connexions, we are taking this methodology to the next level. This new hub will be the go-to resource for consulting, strategic foresight services, and in-depth training, helping organizations, governments, and individuals not only predict the future but actively shape it.

Threatcasting as Experiential Research

Threatcasting is a method uniquely suited for experiential research. During exercises, participants don’t just analyze abstract trends—they create models of specific individuals, in specific places, facing specific threats. This approach transforms foresight into something personal and tangible, making future risks vivid and compelling.

1. Collaboration and the Power of Diversity

Diverse participation is crucial. Threatcasting thrives when people from different ages, professions, backgrounds, and expertise come together. This collaborative approach ensures that the scenarios we create are comprehensive, nuanced, and realistic. By working in small groups, participants leverage collective intelligence, generating innovative solutions to mitigate or avoid adverse outcomes.

2. Imagination as a Tool for Strategic Foresight

Imagination plays a pivotal role in this methodology. By incorporating narrative-building, speculative fiction, and even poetry, participants are encouraged to break free from the constraints of the present. This imaginative leap is not escapism—it’s a rigorous and creative way to anticipate future technologies, societal changes, and emerging threats.

3. The Experiential Component: Immersing in the Future

Threatcasting is not passive observation—it’s hands-on, immersive engagement. The process requires participants to think, feel, and act as if they are experiencing the future firsthand. This fosters empathy and a personal connection to the potential impacts of threats, motivating participants to take proactive action in the present.

Generative AI + Threatcasting

The promise of AI in this space is not about replacing human ideas or creativity—it’s about augmenting it. AI serves as a catalyst for creative exploration that transcends the traditional limits. Even the experiential research practice can grow stronger when paired with AI. There are infinite possibilities to explore.

At Threatcasting.ai, we are integrating Generative AI to:

• Identify weak signals in emerging technological and social landscapes.

• Assist participants in world-building, generating new ideas and refining narratives.

• Process vast amounts of data to create richer, more varied visions of possible futures.

• Enhance scenario development, allowing for more detailed, vivid foresight exercises.

This synergy between human insight and AI’s analytical capabilities ensures that Threatcasting remains a comprehensive, adaptive, and forward-thinking methodology. By blending the logical with the imaginative, the analytical with the experiential, we give participants a more holistic view of potential futures.

"The promise of AI in the creative space is not about replacing human ideas or creativity but augmenting it. AI serves as a catalyst for creative exploration that transcends the traditional limits. Even the experiential research practice can grow stronger with AI paired with creativity. There are infinite possibilities to explore." 

The Future of Threatcasting is Human-Centric

At its core, Threatcasting is about human agency. By grounding the process in lived human experiences, embracing diverse collaboration, and harnessing the power of imagination, we empower people to not just predict the future, but actively shape it.

With Threatcasting.ai, we are opening up this methodology to a new generation of futurists, strategists, and decision-makers who want to create better futures on purpose.

Are you ready to step into the future? Join me at Threatcasting.ai and let’s get to work.

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